Major 30 cities House Market Analysis

 

Albuquerque, N.M. 

Prices are rising with the temperatures in Southwestern cities such as Albuquerque, but sales volume and building permits are down. Local Market Monitor says home prices are at fair value -- there's only a 7% difference between actual prices and equilibrium.

 

Median price end of 2007:  $195,900

Median price end of 2006:  $187,500

Percent change: + 4.5% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 4.5% 

Affordability rating: 4.5* (Avr Income vs. Median house price – the higher, the overpriced)

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 154 households) 2,217

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 162 households) 2,096

Change in foreclosures: + 5.8%

Atlanta 

Hotlanta was less steamy when it came to housing starts last year, with permit activity falling to mid-1990s levels and expected to continue to decline in 2008, says Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Meanwhile, an increase in foreclosures made it No. 11 in the country, according to RealtyTrac. Atlanta didn't experience the sharp price increase in the resale market that other Southern cities faced, so only modest decreases are expected in the median price over the next three years, Porter says. But he adds that an expected slowdown in the solid job growth the city has experienced over the past several years will create less demand for housing. 

 

Median price end of 2007:  $164,300

Median price end of 2006:  $166,800

Percent change: - 1.5 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 0.1 % 

Affordability rating: 2.6

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 40 households) 50,271

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 60 households) 33,018

Change in foreclosures: + 52.3%

Atlantic City, N.J. 

 It's a gamble for homeowners in Atlantic City, which is on Local Market Monitor's list of the top 10 overpriced markets in the United States. Its data show that home prices, which rose last year, are 45% higher than equilibrium. National Association of Realtors’ data show the city had one of the strongest price increases in the Northeast. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $278,800

Median price end of 2006: $250,190

Percent change: + 10.7 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 20.3 % 

Affordability rating: N/A

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 95 households) 1,301

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 143 households) 862

Change in foreclosures: + 50.9%

 

Birmingham, Ala. 

The steel city is an undervalued market in terms of price, according to Local Market Monitor. But foreclosures spiked last year. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $156,100

Median price end of 2006: $161,700

Percent change: - 3.5 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 3.5 % 

Affordability rating: 4.6

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 192 households) 2,351

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 313 households) 1,441

Change in foreclosures: + 63.2%

Bismarck, N.D. 

The housing market is hot in this town, where winter temperatures often dip well below zero. Bismarck posted one of the strongest metro price increases in its part of the country, according to the National Association of Realtors. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $127,500

Median price end of 2006: $144,700

Percent change: + 13 .5 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 2.1 % 

Affordability rating: 4.8

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 2,162 households) 20

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 3,930 households) 11

Change in foreclosures: + 81.8%

Boise, Idaho 

Declining sale prices show that Boise may be heading for a bust, Ingo Winzer of Local Market Monitor says. It's one of his company’s overpriced cities, with average prices 17% higher than equilibrium. Employment growth also is dropping below 1% according to Winzer's data. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $198,000

Median price end of 2006: $209,500

Percent change: - 5.5 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 11.1 % 

Affordability rating: 5.2

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 99 households) 2,206

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 158 households) 1,395

Change in foreclosures:  + 58.1%

Boston 

The Red Sox's 2007 World Series championship was a bright spot for this city, where housing prices declined and foreclosures grew by nearly 200%. Home prices dropped by almost the same amount that job growth increased, according to Local Market Monitor.

 

Median price end of 2007: $380,700

Median price end of 2006: $388,000

Percent change: - 1.9 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 6.3 % 

Affordability rating: 7

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 146 households) 5,106

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 439 households) 1,705

Change in foreclosures: + 199.8%

Cape Coral / Fort Meyers, Fla. 

This area boasts sandy beaches and the laid-back lifestyle that has attracted snowbirds and even luminaries such as Thomas Edison and Henry Ford, who made the area their vacation spot. But it's also been hit hard by the housing crisis. Home values have plunged and foreclosures have jumped a whopping 442% since 2006. It is on Local Market Monitor's list of overpriced markets, with a 34% difference between actual prices and equilibrium; its counterpart to the south, Naples, comes in at No. 1.

 

Median price end of 2007: $225,300

Median price end of 2006: $258,900

Percent change: - 13 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 17 % 

Affordability rating: 5.5

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 24 households) 12,880

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 132 households) 2,375

Change in foreclosures: + 442.3%

Charleston, S.C. 

Homes in this city have history, but also come with big price tags. It’s an overpriced city, according to Local Market Monitor, but it’s been saved from massive foreclosures, with 839 properties with filings last year, representing 0.31% of households.

 

Median price end of 2007: $204,500

Median price end of 2006: $210,900

Percent change: - 3 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 0.2% 

Affordability rating: 5.3

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 315 households) 839

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 425 households) 621

Change in foreclosures: + 35.1%

Cleveland 

The depressed economy, fueled by woes in the automobile industry, has created oversupply in Cleveland, says Bernard Markstein of the National Association of Home Builders. Its foreclosure rate is the sixth-highest nationally, according to RealtyTrac. It's one of the markets, however, that Local Market Monitor identifies as undervalued.

 

Median price end of 2007: $132,400

Median price end of 2006: $138,700

Percent change: - 4.5 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 0.5 % 

Affordability rating: N/A

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 34 households) 27,848

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 71 households) 13,109

Change in foreclosures: + 112.4%

Denver 

Denver is reaching heights not only with altitude but with foreclosures. The Mile-High City is No. 9 among the top 20 cities with the most foreclosures in 2007, according to RealtyTrac. Prices, however, are on their way down.

 

Median price end of 2007: $230,100

Median price end of 2006: $245,600

Percent change: - 6.3 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 9%

Affordability rating: 3.2

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 38 households) 26,632

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 48 households) 20,841

Change in foreclosures: + 27.8%

Detroit

Home sales have stalled in the Motor City. "Detroit is really lousy," says Ingo Winzer of Local Market Monitor. Sales activity is likely to be lower the next two years, picking up again in 2010, says Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. one factor is job losses: The city's unemployment rate is 9 percent, according to Porter's data. Prices should continue to decline through 2009 but at more moderate rates than other major markets, he says.

 

Median price end of 2007: $133,300

Median price end of 2006: $154,600

Percent change: - 13.8 % 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 9.9% 

Affordability rating: 0

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 20 households) 41,273

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 34 households) 26,456

Change in foreclosures: + 68.1%

Honolulu 

Its location away from the mainland is providing Honolulu somewhat of a buffer. Home sales and prices are cooling off, but not at the pace of other cities. It remains an overpriced market, according to Local Market Monitor, with home prices 29% higher than equilibrium.

 

Median price end of 2007: $625,300

Median price end of 2006: $620,000

Percent change: + 0.9% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 0.9% 

Affordability rating: 5.7

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 637 households) 517

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 974 households) 338

Change in foreclosures: + 52.9%

Indianapolis 

Foreclosures are up, and sale prices are down. Indianapolis is No. 18 in RealtyTrac’s list of the metro areas with the largest numbers of foreclosures, with filings last year representing 2% of households. It’s an undervalued market, according to Local Market Monitor, whose data show housing prices 22% below equilibrium. The National Association of Realtors says condo prices are affordable, too, at $116,700 in fourth quarter 2007.

 

Median price end of 2007: $114,000

Median price end of 2006: $117,100

Percent change: - 2.6% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 2.3% 

Affordability rating: 0

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 50 households) 14,591

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 53 households) 13,524

Change in foreclosures: + 7.9%

Las Vegas 

Sin City was in trouble last year. Las Vegas posted the third-highest foreclosure rate in 2007, with 4.228% of households entering some stage of foreclosure. Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting says home sales continue at meager levels as the number of resale transactions has returned to the same level as 1999. Another concern is overbuilding of high-end condos, says Bernard Markstein of the National Association of Home Builders, which shows "there's a limit to even that market." one upside: the area's demographics. Solid population, household and job growth will provide for healthy demand once the market recovers, Porter says.

 

Median price end of 2007: $273,500

Median price end of 2006: $313,500

Percent change: - 12.8% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 23.3%

Affordability rating: 5.9

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 30 households) 30,375

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 64 households) 11,287

Change in foreclosures: + 169.1%

Little Rock, Ark. 

The city, which gave itself the nickname "The Rock" a couple of years ago, is proving to be a rock in the nationwide housing slowdown. Home prices rose slightly last year, and it remains one of the most undervalued United States markets determined by Local Monitor Market. The company’s data show that actual prices are 19% below equilibrium.

 

Median price end of 2007: $127,500

Median price end of 2006: $125,900

Percent change: + 1.3%

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 2.1%

Affordability rating: 2.9

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 105 households) 2,702

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 121 households) 2,339 

Change in foreclosures: + 15.5%

Los Angeles

The spotlight continues to shine on Los Angeles -- but not in a good way. Sales activity appears to be near the bottom, and resale volume has fallen below even the worst year of the housing downturn of the early 1990s, says Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. "But it will take some time for prices to recover in this market, as increasing foreclosure activity will put significant pressure on home prices," he says. Porter’s company forecasts no improvement in the median resale home price in Los Angeles County before 2011. It's also the second-most-expensive condo market in the United States, with median prices at $363,100, according to the National Association of Realtors.

 

Median price end of 2007: $509,700

Median price end of 2006: $586,500

Percent change: - 13.1% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 18.6%

Affordability rating: 7.3

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 74 households) 45,415

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 175 households) 19,100 

Change in foreclosures:  + 137.8%

Memphis, Tenn. 

Memphis is singing the blues: Home prices dropped and foreclosures rose in 2007. The Southern city was No. 13 among the top 20 metro areas, with 2.14 percent of households entering some stage of foreclosure.

 

Median price end of 2007: $124,300

Median price end of 2006: $141,900

Percent change: - 12.4% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 1.1%

Affordability rating: 4.1

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 47 households) 11,291

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 61 households) 8,662

Change in foreclosures: + 30.4%

Miami/Fort Lauderdale

Miami's party scene may be sought by celebrities, but Bernard Markstein of the National Association of Home Builders says it's ground zero for oversupply. The city also is one of Local Market Monitor's most overpriced markets, and foreclosures are the eighth-highest in the country. Single-family sales are improving, but forecasters are monitoring the glut in the condominium market to see how many units close this year, says Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Overall, the southeastern Florida housing market remains weak, and Miami will experience significant decreases in prices in the coming years. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $345,900

Median price end of 2006: $366,800

Percent change: - 5.7% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 21.6%

Affordability rating: 8.2

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 37 households) 25,296

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 76 households) 12,272

Change in foreclosures: + 106.1%

Minneapolis 

The City of Lakes experienced a dip in home prices and closings as foreclosures rose last year. Affordability isn't a concern, with Local Market Monitor reporting a 1% difference in actual prices and equilibrium. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $217,200

Median price end of 2006: $228,300

Percent change: - 4.9% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 4.9%

Affordability rating: 4.3

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 120 households) 10,798 

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 295 households) 4,375

Change in foreclosures: + 146.8%

New Orleans 

It's been nearly three years since Hurricane Katrina, but white-collar workers have been slow to join the return to the area, where job growth is up 5.2%, according to Local Market Monitor. The housing cost-income ratio is 33%, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $158,200

Median price end of 2006: $162,100

Percent change: - 2.4%

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 2.4% 

Affordability rating: 5.1

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 251 households) 2,318

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 792 households) 734

Change in foreclosures: + 215.8%

Raleigh, N.C. 

This Southern technology hub has held up well, says Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. There were some signs of weakness in 2007, but price appreciation remained modest because costs didn't skyrocket during the housing boom.

 

Median price end of 2007: $235,600

Median price end of 2006: $226,600

Percent change: + 4%

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 1.3%

Affordability rating: 3.5

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 251 households) 2,318

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 792 households) 734

Change in foreclosures: + 122.8%

Salt Lake City 

This city seems to finally have been affected by the national slowdown, says Chris Porter of John Burns Consulting. It's one of Local Market Monitor's most overpriced markets, with a 30% difference between actual prices and equilibrium. "2008 will likely be a tough year for Salt Lake in comparison to the strong housing market of 2005 and 2006," Porter says. Job growth also is expected to slow in the next several years.

 

Median price end of 2007: $229,100

Median price end of 2006: $223,600

Percent change: + 2.5% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 7%

Affordability rating: 5.5

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 102 households) 3,692

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 84 households) 4,446

Change in foreclosures:  - 17%

San Antonio, TX 

The home of the Alamo is fighting the housing slowdown. Prices are affordable, with the city described as a "fair value" market on Local Market Monitor's list. Even though prices in Texas towns are increasing, Ken Fears of the National Association of Realtors says it’s at a "healthy rate rather than the white-hot rate we saw on the East and West Coast during the national boom." 

 

Median price end of 2007: $140,600

Median price end of 2006: $151,700

Percent change: + 2.5% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 2.5%

Affordability rating: 5.1

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 94 households) 7,658

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 98 households) 7,324

Change in foreclosures: + 4.6%

Seattle, WA 

The home of Starbucks needs a jolt. Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting says the housing market continues to be stagnant, in terms of slowing price growth and lackluster sales activity. Prices continued to rise in 2007, making it overpriced. Bernard Markstein of the National Association of Home Builders notes the area has positive economic growth, although, like other cities, it's feeling the pinch of tighter lending standards. Add a glut of condos to those factors, and Porter’s company expects costs to continue to drop in the next several years. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $377,500

Median price end of 2006: $372,900

Percent change: + 1.2% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 3.9%

Affordability rating: 7

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 211 households) 5,016

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 245 households) 4,311

Change in foreclosures: +16.4%

Stockton, Calif.

This agricultural community south of Sacramento had the second-highest number of foreclosures in the country in 2007, with 22,184 filings on 10,608 properties. It’s also among the top 10 most overpriced markets in the United States, according to Local Market Monitor, with a 49% difference between average prices and equilibrium.

 

Median price end of 2007: $280,000

Median price end of 2006: $395,000

Percent change: - 29% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 20.6%

Affordability rating: 4.9

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 21 households) 10,608

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 76 households) 2,857

Change in foreclosures: +271.3%

Syracuse, N.Y. 

Syracuse posted one of the strongest price increases in the Northeast last year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Data from John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows it has a low, 23% ratio of housing costs to income. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $126,300

Median price end of 2006: $115,400

Percent change: + 9.4% 

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 3.4%

Affordability rating: 3.6

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 779 households) 364

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 1,784 households) 159

Change in foreclosures: +128.9%

Tucson, Ariz. 

This desert setting has seen land values drop to low levels and significant adjustments in new home prices, says Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. It's on Local Market Monitor's list of overpriced markets. Porter’s company expects resale prices to adjust in 2008, with the number of sales bottoming out at 13,000. After that, expect to see a gradual improvement in resale volume, due to job growth fueling demand, Porter says.

 

Median price end of 2007: $235,800

Median price end of 2006: $239,400

Percent change: - 1.5%

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 15.4%

Affordability rating: 5.7

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 96 households) 4,239

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 168 households) 2,422

Change in foreclosures: +75%

Washington, D.C.

As politicians fight to lead the country, eyes also could be on the city's housing market. As one of the first markets to enter the downturn, Washington – also on Local Market Monitor's list of overpriced markets – should be one of the first to show signs of recovery, says Chris Porter of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The company projects that sales could hit bottom this year, with recovery as early as next year. 

 

Median price end of 2007: $400,100

Median price end of 2006: $421,600

Percent change: - 5.1%

Projected change through Q3 2008: - 10.8% 

Affordability rating: 7.2

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 86 households) 19,229

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 582 households) 2,849

Change in foreclosures: + 574.9%

Wichita, Kan. 

This Midwest town is the most undervalued market of those Local Market Monitor studies, with home prices 28% lower than equilibrium. Its foreclosure numbers also are toward the back of the pack among the 100 metro markets RealtyTrac follows, with 0.26 per household.

 

Median price end of 2007: $113,800

Median price end of 2006: $113,400

Percent change: + 0.4%

Projected change through Q3 2008: + 2.4% 

Affordability rating: N/A

Foreclosures in 2007: (1 for every 381 households) 662

Foreclosures in 2006: (1 for every 331 households) 762

Change in foreclosures: - 13.1%

*The affordability ratings are part of John Burns' Housing Cycle Barometer, which calculates the ratio between housing costs for the median-priced existing home and income levels. They analyze 26-plus years of history in each metropolitan area, and compare the current ratios to the median ratios in each area. The down payment and mortgage payments are appropriately weighted based on total expenditures over the life of a typical home purchase. This methodology accurately determines which markets are overpriced and underpriced, even in an environment with historically low mortgage rates. The barometer ranges from 0 to 10, and is generally categorized as follows:

• Significantly overpriced in comparison to history: 7.6 to 10.0
• Overpriced in comparison to history: 5.0 to 7.5
• Underpriced in comparison to history: 0.0 to 4.9

 

Source; MSN Money